A dynamic analysis of asymmetric shocks in EU manufacturing

Available empirical evidence regarding the degree of symmetry between European economies in the context of Monetary Unification is not conclusive. This study offers new empirical evidence concerning this issue related to the manufacturing sector. Instead of using a static approach as most empirical studies do, the dynamic evolution of shock symmetry is analysed using a state-space model. The results show a clear reduction of asymmetries in terms of demand shocks between 1978 and 1996, with an increase in terms of supply shocks at the end of the period.     

Enriching Intergenerational Decision-Making with Guided Visualization Exercises

Seriously engaging with the needs, hardships, and aspirations of future generations is an emotional experience as much as an intellectual endeavor. In this essay we describe a guided visualization exercise used to overcome the emotional barriers that often prevent us from dealing effectively with intergenerational decisions. The meditation and dreaming technique was applied to a diverse group of researchers who engaged in a visualized encounter with future generations. Following the exercise, we concluded that a serious analysis of intergenerational conflict requires us to confront our own mortality. Also, somewhat surprisingly to workshop participants, our desire to become stewards of the planet was driven by our fear of death as well as our egoist yearning for immortality. We posit that imagining the unknown with visioning practices might increase our emotional resilience, and hence improve our ability to confront the burdens of intergenerational responsibility.     

Does Rigidity of Prices Hide Collusion?

Cartel detection is one of the most basic and most complicated tasks of competition authorities. In recent years, however, variance filters have provided a fairly simple tool for rejecting the existence of price-fixing, with the added advantage that the methodology requires only a low volume of data. In this paper we analyze two aspects of variance filters: (i) the relationship that can be established between market structure and price rigidity, and (ii) the use of different benchmarks for implementing the filters. This paper addresses these two issues by applying a variance filter to a gasoline retail market that is characterized by a set of unique features. Our results confirm the positive relationship between monopoly and price rigidity, and confirm the variance filter??s ability to detect non-competitive behavior when an appropriate benchmark is used. Our findings should serve to promote the implementation of this methodology among competition authorities, albeit in the awareness that a more exhaustive complementary analysis is required.     

Deregulation, Integration, and Market Structure in European Banking

This paper analyzes the impact of deregulation and market integration policies on the structure of European banking markets. It argues that whether European integration will lead to large increases in EU-wide concentration will depend on the extent to which competition in banking is based on endogenous sunk costs or, alternatively, on variable costs and exogenous sunk costs. The paper also highlights the role of own funds as a source of endogenous increasing returns. Finally, it proposes an empirical test of the dominant form of competition. This procedure is applied to data for 11 EU countries during the period 1981–1995. J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1999, 13(4), pp. 372–396. IESE (International Graduate School of Management), University of Navarra, Av. Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, Spain. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G21.     

Input cost, capacity utilization and substitution in the short run

This article studies the behavior of input cost shares in an environment where labor is costly to adjust, materials can be adjusted at no cost and capital is fixed. A model relating cost shares with relative prices and adjustment costs is proposed, allowing joint estimation of the elasticity of substitution and the adjustment cost function, which is an unknown function of the capacity utilization. Based on a panel of more than 700 manufacturing firms, we find evidence of strong input share variations according to the degree of capacity utilization. The estimated shapes of adjustment costs curves of labor are in agreement with our theoretical model, and we obtain sensible elasticities of substitution estimates. Based on such estimates, we find evidence of a negative (positive) bias in downturns (recoveries) in conventional productivity growth measures.     

Forecasting inflation using time‐varying Bayesian model averaging

This paper presents a Bayesian model averaging regression framework for forecasting US inflation, in which the set of predictors included in the model is automatically selected from a large pool of potential predictors and the set of regressors is allowed to change over time. Using real‐time data on the 1960–2011 period, this model is applied to forecast personal consumption expenditures and gross domestic product deflator inflation. The results of this forecasting exercise show that, although it is not able to beat a simple random‐walk model in terms of point forecasts, it does produce superior density forecasts compared with a range of alternative forecasting models. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis shows that the forecasting results are relatively insensitive to prior choices and the forecasting performance is not affected by the inclusion of a very large set of potential predictors.     

Market integration between wild and farmed seabream and seabass in Spain

Gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) and European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) production from aquaculture has been increasing since the 1990s. Nowadays, about 95% of their production comes from aquaculture. In this study, we analyse if the rapid growth in the aquaculture production of both species has affected the capture fisheries prices of both species. In other words, we investigate if there is market integration between wild and farmed gilthead seabream and European seabass. In order to do this analysis, we use data from the main gilthead seabream and European seabass markets in Spain. The results show that there is no market integration between wild and farmed gilthead seabream and European seabass. This implies that capture fisheries are not affected by increases in the aquaculture production of both species. But gilthead seabream and European seabass aquaculture producers face a smaller demand that explains the difficulties this aquaculture segment is facing.     

Weighted approval voting

To allow society to treat unequal alternatives distinctly we propose a natural extension of Approval Voting by relaxing the assumption of neutrality. According to this extension, every alternative receives ex-ante a strictly positive and finite weight. These weights may differ across alternatives. Given the voting decisions of every individual (individuals are allowed to vote for, or approve of, as many alternatives as they wish to), society elects the alternative for which the product of total number of votes times exogenous weight is maximal. If the product is maximal for more than one alternative, a pre-specified tie-breaking rule is applied. Our main result is an axiomatic characterization of this family of voting procedures.